With Euro 2008 just a few months away, Germany have been installed as favourities to lift their fourth crown. Yet, just three years ago people would have questioned your sanity if you suggested they could win a World Cup that they hosted. Once again, it all points to how fragile the German renaissance actually is…
Germany can win the World Cup. Brian O’Driscoll knows it’s April 1, but he’s serious. Find out how in Behind The Wall, his weekly Bundesliga editorial from Berlin.
Mediocrity Über Alles
I’m often asked about Germany’s chances as host nation at the next World Cup finals. People seem genuinely fascinated at the possibility of Europe’s great superpower falling flat on their Teutonic noses at their own party in the summer of 2006. Well, forget it, folks. It ain’t going to happen.
Why praytell, I hear you ask? Well, for a number of reasons. First and foremost it’s the World Cup not the European Championship. This German side could host the next ten Euros and fail to even reach one decider. The fact of the matter is, the World Cup is a less intense event.
Think back to the last World Cup. Mediocre, tottering, redoubtable Germany made the final and lost bravely to Brazil in one of the better World Cup showpieces. At both Euro 2000 and Euro 2004, this same discredited generation crashed out at the first stage in embarrassing fashion. Why? Simply because the standard of opposition in the group stages is far higher in the continental event than it is in the inter-continental jamboree that produces more hype than quality in its current bloated form.
Germany’s Euro opponents over the last two events have been Romania, England, Portugal, Holland, Latvia, and the Czech Republic. At the last World Cup, they faced Saudi Arabia, Ireland, and Cameroon. Then came Paraguay, the USA, and South Korea. At the next World Cup, they’ll face probably only one European opponent – which is just as well given their recent record. No doubt an Asian representative will find their way into the same group, with possibly Mexico or the USA for good measure. In essence, Germany are going to stroll through to round two. No early exits here.
Then comes the tricky part, but also, as previous generations can testify, the time when the Germans become somewhat unbeatable for reasons best known to themselves. While I don’t think the Germans have a squad capable of winning the World Cup in any country other than their own, I do believe that home advantage, historical precedent, and sheer bloodymindedness will ensure an extended stay in their own tournament. Can they win it? Normally I’d say no, but the Germans on home turf usually take some stopping. Even allowing for the fact that this is a poor German side in comparison to previous generations, the opposition is hardly stellar. Let’s face it, we’re not living in a golden age of football. Or silver. Or even tin. We’re living in the alu-foil era when organisation triumphs over ability…I mean, posturing.
Greece, the current European champions won’t beat the Germans in Berlin. Or Hamburg. Or Stuttgart. Or anywhere in 2006. France are in terminal decline, and will do well to even qualify with their dismal mix of has-beens and never-will-bes. Italy have forgotten the lessons of 1982, that to win a World Cup you’ve got to enter opposition territory. Argentina have never played a decent World Cup outside of Latin America. Spain deliver only in a parallel universe. That leaves Brazil and Holland and one of the outsiders to make an impact. Hardly intimidating for a nation like Germany, so assured of their own abilities when the belief flows.
Indeed, that is what Klinsmann’s real task is: to instill the self-belief, inculcate that familar certainty of superiority in his German players. After all, the opposition’s so poor, even the English think they can win. If he does it, they’ll compete to the last few days. If he doesn’t, he’s always got that American residence he holds so dear…
Brian A. O’Driscoll, Berlin
Originally posted at Goal.com: 01/04/2005 22:41
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